CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closes above 17.50 on September 16, 2026 (FOMC decision day, confirmed by CBOE or Bloomberg by September 16, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
VIX is currently at ~16.34 (MacroRadar, September 15, 2026) – below the 10-year average of ~19.73. Kalshi shows 58%, Polymarket 56% probability of a 25 bp Fed rate hike on September 16, 2026, consistent with the open prediction of a hike to 3.75–4.00%. Historical pattern: VIX rose at least +7% from the prior day in 7 of 11 FOMC rate hikes during the 2022–2023 cycles. A rise from 16.34 to 17.50 is exactly +7.1%. Weighted probability: ~41% (58% × 55% spike on hike + 42% × 15% spike without hike). Headwind: a dovish Powell press conference would pressure VIX lower.
Data basis for this prediction
- VIX-Stand: ~16,34; 10-Jahres-Schnitt ~19,73 (MacroRadar, 15.09.2026)
- Kalshi: 58% Wahrscheinlichkeit Fed-Zinserhöhung September 2026 (Stand: 15.09.2026)
- Polymarket: 56% Wahrscheinlichkeit Fed-Zinserhöhung (Stand: 15.09.2026)
- CBOE: VIX +7%+ an 7 von 11 FOMC-Zinserhöhungstagen 2022–2023 (historisches Muster)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
NDX closed at 28,872.85 on September 14, 2026 (–1.69%), off an all-time high of ~30,700 in August. The FOMC meeting of September 15–16 carries ~87% probability (CME FedWatch) of a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, the first since 2022. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a hawkish tone; the tech-heavy Nasdaq historically reacts more sharply to initial hikes than the S&P 500. A further ~1.3% drop to below 28,500 is plausible. No direct Polymarket market found for NDX close on Sep 16; calibrated using Fed hike probability and sector rate-sensitivity. Consistent with the open VIX>17.50 prediction for the same day.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold trades at USD 4,284.55/oz on September 15, 2026 (Investing.com). The Fed decision (+25bps to 3.75–4.00%) is expected September 16 and priced in at >90% (CME FedWatch). With the hike fully anticipated, downside pressure is limited. A close below 4,200 would require a >2% daily decline – historically unusual for a fully priced-in hike. VIX at 16.34 signals a calm market backdrop. No Polymarket market for this specific gold daily close.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
LME copper 3M is currently ~$13,908/t (COMEX: $6.31/lb; source: tradingeconomics.com, metal-charts.org) on September 15, 2026. Copper has already fallen ~5% over the past month, driven by tariff uncertainty, demand weakness, and sulphur supply shortages at smelters. No specific Polymarket market found. The September 16 FOMC rate hike to 3.75–4.00% (existing open prediction) typically strengthens the USD, pressuring USD-denominated commodities. A close below $13,600/t requires a further decline of ~2.2% — within the upper range of typical short-term reactions to a 25bp hike. Probability 50% reflects genuine uncertainty: USD tailwind vs. potential Chinese stimulus as a counterweight.