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Carlos Alcaraz (ESP, seed No. 2) reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 US Open Men's Singles (by September 9, 2026, USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, confirmed by USTA or ATP)
Probability
65%
Carlos Alcaraz enters as the defending champion and seed No. 2 — Jannik Sinner (No. 1) is absent through a knee injury. Kalshi prices his overall win probability at 27%; DraftKings at ~28.6% (+250); SI Sports lists him as the top favourite. Tournament simulation (128-player draw, 7 rounds) yields a quarterfinal probability of approximately 65%. Alcaraz is in the bottom half with Novak Djokovic (seed No. 4) as a potential semifinal opponent. Alexander Zverev (No. 1, top half) is already predicted to reach the final — no conflict.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: Alcaraz 27 % Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit US Open 2026 Herren (Stand: August 2026)
- DraftKings: Alcaraz +250 / ~28,6 % implizite Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit (Stand: August 2026)
- Tennis365/ESPN: Sinner verletzt, Alcaraz Setzliste Nr. 2, Djokovic Nr. 4 im gleichen Tableau-Halbfeld (23. August 2026)
- SI Sports/CBS Sports: US Open 2026 Herren Draw – Alcaraz Topfavorit ohne Sinner (August 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Carlos Alcaraz (Nr. 2) bestritt das Viertelfinale der US Open 2026 gegen Ben Shelton und verlor in fünf Sätzen (6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6) in der längsten Partie der US-Open-Geschichte (bis 3:30 Uhr morgens). Das Viertelfinale wurde erreicht. Quelle: Al Jazeera, NBC News, USTA.