💻 Technology · Next Year

ByteDance Ltd. divests TikTok US operations to a non-Chinese buyer by December 31, 2026 (confirmed by CFIUS approval, SEC filing, or ByteDance press release)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

28%

The US TikTok law (Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, 2024) mandates divestment or ban. Despite multiple deadline extensions under the Trump administration, ByteDance has not completed a transaction by mid-2026. China's regulatory veto on algorithm exports (Export Control Law) blocks a genuine sale — without algorithm transfer, buyer value is sharply reduced. Potential buyers (Oracle, Microsoft consortium) remain in talks but structural obstacles dominate. Polymarket had early ~35% for a sale by end-2026 (2025 estimate); current discount to 28% due to continued lack of progress.

Data basis for this prediction

Reuters: TikTok US Divest-or-Ban Gesetz Status 2026
Polymarket: ByteDance TikTok sale odds ~35 % (2025 Referenz)
WSJ: China beschränkt Algorithmus-Export, blockiert TikTok-Verkauf, 2025–2026
Bloomberg: TikTok deal negotiations update 2026

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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