📈 Economy · Next Week

Brent crude oil (ICE front-month) closes above $101.00 per barrel on Monday, July 28, 2026 (confirmed by ICE/Bloomberg closing price)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. July 2026 · Predicted for 28. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

38%

Brent closed at $98.38/barrel on July 24 (intraday high $100.39). The market benefits from Middle East tensions (IRGC Strait of Hormuz activity, fragile US-Iran deal), seasonally high US demand, and limited OPEC+ spare capacity. Closing above $101 on Monday requires a 2.7% gain from July 24 close. Weekend risk premium from escalating Middle East situation could help. No specific prediction market; estimate: 38%.

Data basis for this prediction

Brent Crude 24.07.2026: $98,38/bbl, Intraday-Hoch $100,39 (Intellectia.ai)
US-Iran Abkommen: 60-Tage-Roadmap seit 17.06.2026, Hormuz-Spannungen anhaltend (CNBC, 22.06.2026)
Brent wöchentlich +10 % durch Nahosteskalation (Intellectia.ai, Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Brent Rohöl (ICE Front-Month) schloss am 28. Juli 2026 bei ca. 82,08 USD/Barrel (Oktober-Kontrakt) – ein Rückgang von 3,79 USD bzw. 4,4 % gegenüber dem Vortag. Das ist weit unterhalb der Schwelle von 101,00 USD. Der entscheidende Grund für das Scheitern der Vorhersage war, dass die Geopolitik genau das Gegenteil dessen tat, was die Prognose annahm: Statt einer Eskalation der US-Iran-Spannungen gab es eine gegenseitige Einstellung der Feindseligkeiten zwischen den USA und dem Iran (Waffenstillstandssignale am Wochenende 26./27. Juli). Die bis dahin in den Preis eingepreiste geopolitische Risikoprämie löste sich dadurch schlagartig auf. WTI fiel parallel auf 79,26 USD/Barrel (−4,1 %). Quellen: SunSirs (sunsirs.com/commodity-news/petail-34824.html), Yahoo Finance / Fortune (price-of-oil-07-28-2026).

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