BP plc (LON: BP.) reports Q2 2026 adjusted Underlying RC Profit above $2.0 billion (August 4, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
·
Predicted for 4. August 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
BP reports Q2 2026 on August 4, 2026 (07:00 BST, live Q&A with CEO Meg O'Neill and CFO Kate Thomson). Brent crude was elevated in Q2 2026 (April–June) due to Middle East tensions, crossing $100/bbl by late July (+7% WoW). Under Meg O'Neill, BP has rationalized its cost base. The $2.0B threshold is below expected Q1 2026 levels and appears achievable in the current price environment. No Polymarket data; ~60% probability.
Data basis for this prediction
- BP Q2 2026 Results Date: 4. August 2026, 07:00 BST – Q&A mit CEO Meg O'Neill (bp.com/investors)
- Brent Crude Oil: 100,69 USD/Barrel am 25.07.2026 (Forbes Advisor / ICE)
- Brent Crude wöchentlich +~7 % (Woche bis 25.07.2026) wegen Nahost-Eskalation
- BP CEO Meg O'Neill, CFO Kate Thomson: Q2 2026 Webcast bestätigt (bp.com)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
BP meldete am 4. August 2026 einen Underlying RC Profit (nach Steuern) von 5,7 Mrd. USD für Q2 2026 – weit über der prognostizierten Schwelle von 2,0 Mrd. USD. Der Gewinn stieg gegenüber Q1 2026 (3,2 Mrd. USD) und dem Vorjahresquartal Q2 2025 (2,4 Mrd. USD). Treiber waren höhere Öl- und Gasrealisierungspreise sowie deutlich stärkere Raffineriemargen und Trading-Ergebnisse. Quellen: bp.com Pressemitteilung (4. Aug. 2026), StockTitan SEC-Filing 6-K, offshore-technology.com.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.