🍾 Beverages · Next Week

Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) reports a year-on-year net revenue decline in its Q2 2026 results (23 July 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. July 2026 · Predicted for 23. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

62%

Boston Beer reports Q2 2026 on July 23, 2026. The hard seltzer market (Truly brand) continues to lose material share to RTD cocktails, hard teas, and import beers. The core beer segment (Samuel Adams) is under pressure from a Bud Light recovery and the premiumisation of European import beers. Q1 2026 still showed +4.39% YoY ($433.9M), but the Q2 YoY comparison is tougher (Q2 2025 was relatively strong). Management prioritises margin protection over volume growth investment. No Polymarket market; estimate based on industry trends and Truly's Q2 seasonality.

Data basis for this prediction

Boston Beer Q1 2026 Revenue: 433,9 Mio. USD +4,39 % YoY (SEC Form 8-K / IR bostonbeer.com, 2026)
MarketBeat: Boston Beer Q2 2026 Earnings Report – Datum 23. Juli 2026
Seeking Alpha: 'Boston Beer Is A Beaten-Up Buy' – Truly-Marktrückgang als Kernproblem (2026)
SEC: Boston Beer Form 8-K FY2026 (EDGAR, 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Boston Beer Company meldete am 23. Juli 2026 für Q2 2026 einen Nettoumsatz von 568,3 Mio. USD – ein Rückgang von 3,3 % gegenüber dem Vorjahresquartal. Die Vorhersage eines YoY-Umsatzrückgangs trat damit eindeutig ein. Treiber waren laut Earning-Call sinkende Depletionen (–6 % YoY) bei Twisted Tea, Truly, Samuel Adams, Hard MTN DEW und Dogfish Head – exakt die Marktsegmente, die in der Prognose als Druckpunkte identifiziert worden waren. Quellen: chronicles journal / StockStory (markets.chroniclejournal.com, 23.07.2026) und MarketBeat Q2 2026 Earnings Report.

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Analyst consensus for Q3 2026: EPS 0.2998 USD (~0.30 USD) with revenue of 2.49 billion USD (MarketBeat / TradingView, as of October 2026). Monster Beverage has beaten EPS consensus in a majority of recent quarters and continues to benefit from international market expansion in the energy drink segment. No active Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this event; beat probability estimated at ~65% based on historical beat rate and current consensus positioning.

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