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BMW Championship 2026 (Bellerive Country Club, final round August 22, 2026): Rory McIlroy wins the tournament
Probability
24%
McIlroy started as one of five co-leaders after Round 1 (−6 each: Woodland, Spaun, Gotterup, Clark). World #1 Scottie Scheffler began at +2 and is behind. DraftKings Tour Championship odds (Aug 12) show McIlroy as clear #2 behind Scheffler (+920 vs +350), implying a BMW Championship win probability of ~22–26%. Scheffler remains structurally dangerous (comebacks are his trademark), but McIlroy's R1 co-leading position and historical strength at Bellerive support the call.
Data basis for this prediction
- DraftKings: Tour Championship Odds — Scheffler +350, McIlroy +920 (Stand 12.08.2026)
- Yahoo Sports: BMW Championship R1 Leaderboard — 5er-Spitzengruppe bei −6 (McIlroy, Woodland, Spaun, Gotterup, Clark) (21.08.2026)
- PGA Tour: FedExCup Standings — Scheffler führt mit großem Vorsprung (August 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Scottie Scheffler gewann das BMW Championship 2026 in Bellerive mit −15 (Gesamtscore 265). McIlroy, der nach Runde 1 mit −6 in Führung lag, gewann das Turnier nicht. Scheffler holte trotz schwachem Start (Runde 1: +2) auf und siegte – exakt das in der Prognose als Hauptrisiko genannte Szenario ('Comeback aus Rückständen ist sein Markenzeichen'). Quelle: PGA Tour official past results (pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/bmw-championship/R2026028/past-results).