Blue agave (Agave tequilana Weber) spot price in Jalisco stays below MXN 16.00 per kg through December 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Blue agave prices in Jalisco stood at MXN 10–11/kg in July 2026, far below the 2022 peak of MXN 32/kg. IWSR forecast in 2024 that 'prices will not hit the bottom until 2026'. Structural oversupply from the 2018–2022 boom cycle persists. Reaching MXN 16/kg by December would require a +45–60% increase from current levels – unlikely even with an expected price trough in 2026. US tariff risk on tequila adds further headwinds. Verifiable via Mezcalistas.com or CRT price reports. No prediction market; own estimate 72%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Agave Tequilana Weber Spotpreis Jalisco Juli 2026: 10–11 MXP/kg (Mezcalistas.com Agave Price Update, Juli 2026)
- IWSR 2024: 'Agave-Preise erreichen Tief nicht vor 2026' – strukturelle Überkapazität aus Boom-Zyklus (The Spirits Business, Apr. 2024)
- Historischer Peak: ~32 MXP/kg (2022); Feb.-2024-Tief: ~5 MXP/kg (Mezcalistas.com)
- Becle Q-Ergebnis-Miss 2026 + US-Tarif-Unsicherheit stützen Preisdruck-These (GuruFocus / The Spirits Business, 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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