Bank of Japan raises its policy rate to 1.50% at the December 2026 meeting (December 17–18), confirmed by BoJ press release or Bloomberg by December 18
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 1. October 2026
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Predicted for 18. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The OIS market (TONA, as of October 1, 2026) prices a BoJ December rate hike at 75.9% (implied post-December rate: 1.47%). Bloomberg economist surveys show ~93% of BoJ watchers expect another hike by January 2027 (September 2026 survey). MUFG Research explicitly forecast December 2026 as the date of the move to 1.50% (published September 29, 2026). Fundamentals support: BoJ Tankan Q3 2026 Large Manufacturers' DI = +24 (eight-year high); Japan CPI remains above the 2% target. The BoJ is on a gradual normalization path (0% in early 2024 → 1.25% in September 2026). October hike probability: only 15.2% per OIS — market expects a pause in October, followed by a December move.
Data basis for this prediction
- centralbank.watch / rateprobability.com: BoJ OIS-Dezember-Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit = 75,9 % (Stand: 1. Oktober 2026)
- Bloomberg (11. September 2026): 93 % der Ökonomen erwarten BoJ-Hike bis Januar 2027
- MUFG Research (29. September 2026): Dezember 2026 als Zeitpunkt für BoJ-Hike auf 1,50 % prognostiziert
- Bank of Japan / Bytes Europe: Tankan Q3 2026 Große Industrieunternehmen DI = +24 (1. Oktober 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
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📈 Economy
✦ AI
The ISM Services PMI for August 2026 printed at 55.4 (well above consensus of 54.2). The S&P Global flash reading for September 2026 showed a strong acceleration to 58.7, signalling continued expansion momentum. Polymarket assigns 39% probability to the 55.0–55.9 bracket and 29% to 54.0–54.9; cumulative probability above 54.5 is approximately 65%. Supporting evidence comes from the strong ISM Manufacturing PMI for September (54.5%, released 1 October 2026), indicating broad-based economic expansion. The weak ADP employment print (90,000 jobs) is a counter-signal, but services demand — particularly in AI and technology — remains robust.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The RatingDog (formerly Caixin) China Services PMI for August 2026 printed at 51.4 — above the 50-point expansion threshold and above the 50.6 consensus (Investing.com). The services sector remains substantially more resilient than manufacturing: China's NBS Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 disappointed at only 50.1. A modest improvement to 51.5 (+0.1 vs. prior month) is supported by ongoing domestic consumer recovery. No Polymarket market available; probability is slightly above 50% given the narrow gap to the previous reading.