Bank of Japan raises its policy rate to at least 1.25% by December 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The BOJ raised rates to 1.00% in June 2026 (25bp, unanimous). For the July meeting (July 30–31), the open platform prediction is a hold. For remaining 2026 meetings (September, December), a Reuters poll showed nearly the entire economist panel expecting another hike to 1.25% in Q4 – CryptoBriefing: 'Bank of Japan watchers expect two rate hikes in 2026.' MUFG Research and Focus Economics see 1.25% as the median Q4 2026 forecast. USD/JPY at 162.39 (July 14) increases structural BOJ pressure. This prediction is consistent with the open 'hold in July' platform prediction. Probability: ~72%.
Data basis for this prediction
- BOJ hob Leitzins auf 1,00 % im Juni 2026 (Focus Economics / Bank of Japan, 16. Juni 2026)
- CryptoBriefing: 'BOJ watchers expect two rate hikes in 2026'; Reuters-Umfrage ~94 % für Juni-Hike bestätigt (2026)
- MUFG Research JPY Monthly Juli 2026: weiterer Hike auf 1,25 % im Q4 2026 als Medianprognose
- USD/JPY 162,39 am 14. Juli 2026 – struktureller Druck auf BOJ steigt (Bank of Japan FX Daily)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.