Bank of Japan holds key interest rate unchanged at 1.00% on July 31, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket shows 99% probability of a hold (volume $315k, as of July 26, 2026). The BoJ hiked from 0.75% to 1.00% in June 2026 and signalled a pause. Core CPI ~2.3%, USD/JPY ~162–163, global tariff headwinds counsel caution. Another hike in July is near-certain to be skipped.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: BoJ Rate Decision Juli 2026 – 99 % Hold, $315k Volumen (26.07.2026)
- Investing.com: BoJ Zinsentscheid Juni 2026 – +25 bp auf 1,00 %
- USD/JPY Spot ~162–163 JPY/USD (Bloomberg, Stand 24.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Bank of Japan hielt den Leitzins am 31. Juli 2026 exakt wie vorhergesagt bei 1,00 % unverändert (Abstimmung 8:1). Bloomberg bestätigte die Entscheidung als erwartungsgemäß. Die BoJ hatte den Zins im Juni 2026 von 0,75 % auf 1,00 % angehoben und wollte nun die Auswirkungen beobachten, bevor ein weiterer Schritt erfolgt. Quellen: Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-31/bank-of-japan-holds-interest-rate-steady-at-1-as-expected), Focus Economics (https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/monetary-policy/japan-central-bank-meeting-31-07-2026-bank-of-japan-holds-rates-in-july/), BabyPips (https://www.babypips.com/news/headline-boj-interest-rate-decision-july-2026-yen-intervention)
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold traded at approximately $4,130 per troy ounce on November 5, 2026 — a one-day gain of +1.68% (+$66) following the Democratic midterm sweep (Democrats won both the Senate and the House, per AP/NBC, November 5, 2026). Polymarket prices a 49% probability of gold exceeding $4,200 in November (as of November 5, 2026). The target is only 1.7% above today's closing level with 25 trading days remaining. Upside drivers: Iran de-escalation by new Democratic Congress, falling oil prices (WTI −1.13% to $87.13). Risk factors: profit-taking, rising real yields.