Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises its policy rate to 1.25% by October 31, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The BOJ currently holds the policy rate at 1.00%. For the July 30-31 meeting, centralbank.watch puts the probability of a move at only ~4%. For September and October 2026, futures markets price in >60% probability of a further 25bp hike to 1.25% (ING, June 2026). BOJ board member Tamura publicly advocates hikes 'every few months' toward a neutral rate of ~2%. The June 2026 BOJ Watchers Survey expects two rate hikes in 2026 as the base case. Political uncertainty after the LDP coalition's upper house defeat (July 20) may create short-term caution but is unlikely to permanently derail the normalization path.
Data basis for this prediction
- centralbank.watch BOJ Rate Probability (Stand 18. Juli 2026): 96 % Halten am 30./31. Juli 2026
- ING Think (Juni 2026): 'Further Bank of Japan hikes expected but not imminent' – Oktober als wahrscheinlichster Termin, >60 % Marktwahrscheinlichkeit
- Bloomberg (9. Juni 2026): 'BOJ Watchers See Two Rate Hikes in 2026, Starting With Next Week'
- Japan Times (2. Juli 2026): Sinkender Yen und robuste Konjunktur stärken BOJ-Argumente für frühere Erhöhung
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Die Bank of Japan erhöhte ihren Leitzins am 18. September 2026 von 1,00 % auf exakt 1,25 % – das höchste Niveau seit 1995 (Quelle: UPI.com, Japan Times, 18.09.2026). Bei der darauffolgenden Sitzung am 30. Oktober 2026 hielt die BOJ den Satz bei 1,25 % unverändert (8-1-Abstimmung, hawkish hold), da die Kerninflation erstmals seit Einführung des 2 %-Ziels 2013 als erreicht bewertet wurde (Quelle: financecalendar.com, fuw.ch). Der Leitzins stand damit am 31. Oktober 2026 bei genau 1,25 % – die Vorhersage traf exakt zu, wenn auch via September-Sitzung statt Oktober-Sitzung.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold traded at approximately $4,130 per troy ounce on November 5, 2026 — a one-day gain of +1.68% (+$66) following the Democratic midterm sweep (Democrats won both the Senate and the House, per AP/NBC, November 5, 2026). Polymarket prices a 49% probability of gold exceeding $4,200 in November (as of November 5, 2026). The target is only 1.7% above today's closing level with 25 trading days remaining. Upside drivers: Iran de-escalation by new Democratic Congress, falling oil prices (WTI −1.13% to $87.13). Risk factors: profit-taking, rising real yields.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Cisco has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 7 of its last 8 quarters. For Q1 FY2027 (August–October 2026) the company itself guided $1.32–$1.34 per share — the market consensus of $1.32 sits at the bottom of this self-guided range, which historically signals a beat for Cisco (Q4 FY2026: $1.22 vs. consensus $1.17). AI-networking growth, Splunk integration synergies, and record Q4 FY2026 revenue ($17.25B) confirm the structural growth momentum. Q1 FY2027 revenue consensus: $18.11B (within guidance range $18.0–18.2B).