Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises its policy rate to 1.25% by October 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The BOJ currently holds the policy rate at 1.00%. For the July 30-31 meeting, centralbank.watch puts the probability of a move at only ~4%. For September and October 2026, futures markets price in >60% probability of a further 25bp hike to 1.25% (ING, June 2026). BOJ board member Tamura publicly advocates hikes 'every few months' toward a neutral rate of ~2%. The June 2026 BOJ Watchers Survey expects two rate hikes in 2026 as the base case. Political uncertainty after the LDP coalition's upper house defeat (July 20) may create short-term caution but is unlikely to permanently derail the normalization path.
Data basis for this prediction
- centralbank.watch BOJ Rate Probability (Stand 18. Juli 2026): 96 % Halten am 30./31. Juli 2026
- ING Think (Juni 2026): 'Further Bank of Japan hikes expected but not imminent' – Oktober als wahrscheinlichster Termin, >60 % Marktwahrscheinlichkeit
- Bloomberg (9. Juni 2026): 'BOJ Watchers See Two Rate Hikes in 2026, Starting With Next Week'
- Japan Times (2. Juli 2026): Sinkender Yen und robuste Konjunktur stärken BOJ-Argumente für frühere Erhöhung
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Turkish annual inflation peaked above 85% in October 2022 and has fallen sharply on orthodox monetary policy (rate hiking cycle from May 2023, policy rate >40%) — reaching approximately 44% by December 2024. The disinflation trend continued through 2025; analysts estimate Turkish inflation at 20–35% for mid-2026 depending on trajectory. Breaking below 25% for July 2026 hinges critically on wage growth dynamics, energy imports (Brent at USD 87 weighs on TRY-denominated import costs) and the exchange-rate path. Risk: the elevated oil price may slow disinflation and delay the sub-25% crossing to Q4 2026. No Polymarket signal available. Assessment: 40% probability — ambitious but achievable threshold within the ongoing disinflation cycle.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
UK headline CPI held at 2.8% YoY in both April and May 2026. The ONS June 2026 data point is due on July 22. Counteracting forces: Brent crude at USD 87.72/barrel (+26.74% YoY) supports UK energy costs and limits sharp downside; at the same time, stagnating European services demand (Cassandra signal: German services PMI below 50) may dampen imported services prices. No Polymarket anchor available. We estimate 35% probability for a print at or below 2.7% — a contrarian view vs. the consensus expectation of a stable 2.8%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 stands at 7,484 on July 20, 2026, reflecting a still-expanding US economy. The US services sector — roughly two-thirds of GDP — has held comfortably above the 50-point expansion threshold despite a Fed funds rate of 3.50–3.75%. Strong labour markets and resilient consumer spending underpin the sector; the soft July 1 ADP print of 98,000 new jobs signals some cooling but is not recessionary. A reading above 52.5 is consistent with current market conditions. No Polymarket signal available; we estimate 55% probability. Note: Germany's Services PMI is tracked separately with its own Cassandra signal (below 50) — the US dynamic is structurally different.