📈 Economy · Next Month

Bank of Japan (BOJ) keeps its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at the July 31, 2026 meeting

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

94%

The BoJ last raised its policy rate by 25bps to 1.00% on June 16, 2026 — the highest since 1995 (CNBC). The next policy meeting concludes July 31, 2026. Rateprobability.com implies a ~96% hold probability (as of July 18, 2026). Bloomberg and Japan Times (July 18, 2026) both report the BoJ will stand pat and may only slightly revise its growth outlook upward. Economist surveys largely expect the next hike in Q4 2026. Market quote: ~96% hold.

Data basis for this prediction

BoJ Leitzins aktuell: 1,00 % (Hike 16. Juni 2026, CNBC)
Haltewahrscheinlichkeit Juli 2026: ~96 % (rateprobability.com, 18. Juli 2026)
Bloomberg 17. Juli 2026: 'BOJ likely to raise growth forecast, stand pat on rates'
Japan Times 18. Juli 2026: 'BOJ set to keep interest rates unchanged'

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die BoJ hat am 31. Juli 2026 den Leitzins erwartungsgemäß unverändert bei 1,00 % belassen – bestätigt durch den offiziellen BoJ-Statement (boj.or.jp), Bloomberg und CNBC. Die Entscheidung fiel mit 8:1 Stimmen (einziger Dissident: Hajime Takata, der eine Anhebung auf 1,25 % forderte). Die Vorhersage trifft exakt zu: Leitzins gehalten bei 1,00 %, Datum korrekt, alle 52 befragten Bloomberg-Ökonomen hatten ebenfalls ein Hold erwartet. Quellen: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-31/bank-of-japan-holds-interest-rate-steady-at-1-as-expected | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/boj-rates-yen-intervention-inflation-japan.html | https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260731a.pdf

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