Bank of Japan holds policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at July 31, 2026 meeting (confirmed by BoJ press release)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
·
Predicted for 31. July 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
BoJ raised policy rate to 1.00% in June 2026 – highest since 1995 (7:1 vote, CNBC June 16, 2026). A pause at the July 30–31 meeting is highly probable: BoJ historically waits multiple sessions between hikes to assess impact. Weak yen does argue for further tightening, but global uncertainties (Brent ~$100, European recession fears) urge caution. Kalshi futures imply ~68% for no change. Consistent with open prediction 'USD/JPY above 160 on July 31' — BoJ pause supports weak yen.
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC: BoJ raises rate to 1.0%, June 16, 2026
- Investing.com: BoJ meeting dates July 30–31, 2026
- Kalshi: BoJ rate hold July 2026, ~68% implied
- fxleaders.com: JPY macro context July 24, 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die BoJ hielt den Leitzins am 31. Juli 2026 wie vorhergesagt unverändert bei 1,00 %. Die Entscheidung fiel mit 8:1-Stimmen (ein Mitglied votierte für eine Anhebung auf 1,25 %). Quellen: Bloomberg ("Bank of Japan Holds Interest Rate Steady at 1% as Expected", 31.07.2026), Focus Economics, Babypips sowie japanischsprachige Berichterstattung (smart-moneylife.jp, Nikkei). Die Begründung – Wartezeit nach der Juni-Anhebung, um deren Wirkung abzuschätzen – traf exakt zu.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.