Bank of England (MPC) holds the base rate unchanged at 3.75% on September 17, 2026 (confirmed by BoE press release or Bloomberg by September 17, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The MPC meets on September 17, 2026. The current base rate is 3.75%, implied by the open Cassandra prediction of a BoE hike to 4.00% only on November 5, 2026. The ECB raised to 2.65% in September 2026; the FOMC decides on September 16–17 with 59% probability (Fed Funds futures, September 13, 2026) to hike to 3.75–4.00%. The MPC historically follows Fed cycles with a lag and favors a data-dependent pause given subdued UK growth (BoE forecast: 0.9% for 2026). The September decision is accompanied by the August Monetary Policy Report, which already signaled a more moderate tone. No Polymarket market found; own estimate: 65%.
Data basis for this prediction
- BoE MPC Sitzungskalender 2026: Septembersitzung am 17. September 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk, Stand September 2026)
- FOMC September 2026: 59 % Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für +25 bp Anhebung auf 3,75–4,00 % (FedRateCalc.com / CNBC, Stand 13. September 2026)
- EZB-Entscheid September 2026: Einlagensatz auf 2,65 % angehoben, dritte Erhöhung bis Dezember 2026 eingepreist (FXStreet, 10. September 2026)
- Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: BoE hebt Leitzins am 5. November 2026 von 3,75 % auf 4,00 % an – impliziert September-Hold
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket prices a 79% probability of a Fed hike on September 16 to 3.75–4.00%. Polymarket also sees 88% probability the 10-year yield reaches 5.0% in 2026, implying current levels are already elevated. Post-decision bond selling ('sell the news') should push the 10Y above 4.55% on September 18. Kalshi priced the September hike at 58% as of September 2.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket sees 97% probability WTI reaches 100 USD in 2026. The open Brent prediction (>100 USD on September 19) is consistent: WTI typically trades USD 3–5 below Brent, implying 95–97 USD around September 17. Supportive factors: Iran tensions (IAEA emergency session expected by September 19), OPEC+ production discipline, strong global demand. Downside risk: abrupt diplomatic breakthrough or surprise OPEC+ output increase.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Ethereum is currently trading at ~$2,521 (CoinGecko, September 13, 2026). A gain of ~+19% would be needed by end of October. Price drivers: (1) BTC correlation – an open Cassandra prediction sees BTC above $80,000 on September 19; historical ETH/BTC correlation ~0.80. (2) Macro liquidity – the FOMC rate hike to 3.75–4.00% (September 17, Cassandra open) is largely priced in; risk-on mode often follows. (3) Structural ETH drivers: staking yields, Layer-2 adoption, spot ETH ETF inflows. No Polymarket market for ETH >$3,000 October 2026 available; historical 6-week volatility implies +19% moves in ~42% of periods (2022–2026).