Bank of England (MPC) keeps the base rate unchanged at 3.75% at the September meeting (approx. September 18, 2026) (confirmed by Bank of England press release or Bloomberg)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
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Predicted for 18. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The MPC held the base rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 majority on July 30, 2026; three members voted to raise to 4.00%. 90% of polled economists expect no change for the rest of 2026 (equalsmoney.com). UK CPI inflation was 2.9% in July 2026 – above the 2% target. The open prediction sees UK CPI for August 2026 above 3.0% (ONS, around September 17), published immediately before the MPC meeting and virtually ruling out a cut. OIS markets imply approximately 85% hold probability for September per Reuters estimate. Counter-indication: three hawkish members could vote for a 25bp hike, but a majority for a hike is unlikely given weak UK growth.
Data basis for this prediction
- BoE MPC Juli 2026: Leitzins 3,75%, 6:3-Abstimmung (equalsmoney.com, Bank of England, 30. Juli 2026)
- UK CPI Juli 2026: 2,9% (ONS); offene Vorhersage UK CPI August 2026 über 3,0%
- Economist-Umfrage: 90% erwarten BoE-Leitzins unverändert bis Jahresende 2026 (equalsmoney.com)
- UK OIS-Markt September 2026: ~85% Hold (Bloomberg, Reuters, Stand 26.08.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.