Bank of England (MPC) keeps the base rate unchanged at 3.75% at the September meeting (approx. September 18, 2026) (confirmed by Bank of England press release or Bloomberg)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
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Predicted for 18. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The MPC held the base rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 majority on July 30, 2026; three members voted to raise to 4.00%. 90% of polled economists expect no change for the rest of 2026 (equalsmoney.com). UK CPI inflation was 2.9% in July 2026 – above the 2% target. The open prediction sees UK CPI for August 2026 above 3.0% (ONS, around September 17), published immediately before the MPC meeting and virtually ruling out a cut. OIS markets imply approximately 85% hold probability for September per Reuters estimate. Counter-indication: three hawkish members could vote for a 25bp hike, but a majority for a hike is unlikely given weak UK growth.
Data basis for this prediction
- BoE MPC Juli 2026: Leitzins 3,75%, 6:3-Abstimmung (equalsmoney.com, Bank of England, 30. Juli 2026)
- UK CPI Juli 2026: 2,9% (ONS); offene Vorhersage UK CPI August 2026 über 3,0%
- Economist-Umfrage: 90% erwarten BoE-Leitzins unverändert bis Jahresende 2026 (equalsmoney.com)
- UK OIS-Markt September 2026: ~85% Hold (Bloomberg, Reuters, Stand 26.08.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Die Bank of England ließ den Leitzins beim September-Treffen unverändert bei 3,75% (6:3-Abstimmung). Quellen: MoneyWeek 'LIVE: Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75%', CNBC 'Bank of England defies Fed's rate-hike lead, leaving rates unchanged'.
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