📈 Economy · Next Week

Bank of England holds Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026 (Super Thursday)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

86%

MPC meets July 30, 2026 (Super Thursday with full Monetary Policy Report and Governor press conference). Bank Rate has held at 3.75% through four consecutive meetings. SONIA futures markets price 86% probability of no change (14% chance of a rise to 4.00%). The June MPC vote was 7-2 for hold — two hawkish dissents signal growing hike inclination, but no majority. Easing US-Iran tensions have reduced energy price pressure, supporting another pause.

Data basis for this prediction

SONIA-Futures / rateprobability.com: BoE Hold 86 %, Hike 14 % (Stand 25.07.2026)
BoE MPC June 2026 Protokoll: 7-2 Vote für Hold bei 3,75 % (BoE-Pressemitteilung)
BritSavvy.co.uk: BoE July 2026 Rate Decision Analyse (Stand 25.07.2026)
equalsmoney.com: BoE Interest Rate Decision 30. Juli 2026 – Super Thursday

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Bank of England hat am 30. Juli 2026 den Leitzins (Bank Rate) erwartungsgemäß unverändert bei 3,75 % belassen – zum fünften Mal in Folge. Das MPC stimmte mit 6:3 für eine Pause; drei Mitglieder (Megan Greene, Huw Pill, Catherine Mann) votierten für eine Erhöhung auf 4,00 %. Der Vote-Ausfall war etwas hawkisher als in der Vorhersage antizipiert (Juni-Voting war 7:2, Juli 6:3), aber die Kernaussage – Hold bei 3,75 % – trat exakt ein. Quellen: Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary July 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026); US News (usnews.com, 30.07.2026); IG Markets (ig.com, 31.07.2026).

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