📈 Economy · Next Week

Bank of England holds Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026 (Super Thursday)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

86%

MPC meets July 30, 2026 (Super Thursday with full Monetary Policy Report and Governor press conference). Bank Rate has held at 3.75% through four consecutive meetings. SONIA futures markets price 86% probability of no change (14% chance of a rise to 4.00%). The June MPC vote was 7-2 for hold — two hawkish dissents signal growing hike inclination, but no majority. Easing US-Iran tensions have reduced energy price pressure, supporting another pause.

Data basis for this prediction

SONIA-Futures / rateprobability.com: BoE Hold 86 %, Hike 14 % (Stand 25.07.2026)
BoE MPC June 2026 Protokoll: 7-2 Vote für Hold bei 3,75 % (BoE-Pressemitteilung)
BritSavvy.co.uk: BoE July 2026 Rate Decision Analyse (Stand 25.07.2026)
equalsmoney.com: BoE Interest Rate Decision 30. Juli 2026 – Super Thursday

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Bank of England hat am 30. Juli 2026 den Leitzins (Bank Rate) erwartungsgemäß unverändert bei 3,75 % belassen – zum fünften Mal in Folge. Das MPC stimmte mit 6:3 für eine Pause; drei Mitglieder (Megan Greene, Huw Pill, Catherine Mann) votierten für eine Erhöhung auf 4,00 %. Der Vote-Ausfall war etwas hawkisher als in der Vorhersage antizipiert (Juni-Voting war 7:2, Juli 6:3), aber die Kernaussage – Hold bei 3,75 % – trat exakt ein. Quellen: Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary July 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026); US News (usnews.com, 30.07.2026); IG Markets (ig.com, 31.07.2026).

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026