Bank of England raises the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% at the MPC meeting on November 5, 2026 (confirmed by BoE press release or Bloomberg by November 5, 2026, 13:00 GMT)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. October 2026
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Predicted for 5. November 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
OIS market pricing implies an 83–88% probability of a 25 bps rate hike to 4.00% at the November 5, 2026 MPC meeting (Centralbank.watch / Cambridge Currencies, as of October 4, 2026). Polymarket: ~82% implied hike probability. The backdrop is unambiguous: in the September meeting (September 17, 2026), three of nine MPC members already voted for an immediate hike to 4.00%, while six voted to hold. The October meeting (October 7) also ended in a hold at 3.75%, but the market overwhelmingly prices the next move as a hike. Drivers: persistently high services inflation, robust UK Services PMI (existing platform forecast >51.5 for September), and rising UK household inflation expectations. Calibration follows market pricing.
Data basis for this prediction
- OIS-Marktpreise: 83–88 % Wahrscheinlichkeit für +25 bps Hike auf 4,00 % am 5. November 2026 (Centralbank.watch / Cambridge Currencies, Stand 4. Oktober 2026)
- September-MPC-Abstimmung: 6 Stimmen für Halten, 3 für sofortige Erhöhung auf 4,00 % (BoE Protokoll, 17. September 2026)
- Polymarket: 'Bank of England decision in November 2026' — ~82 % Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 4. Oktober 2026)
- BoE Bank Rate aktuell 3,75 %; Oktober-Entscheidung: Halten (Cambridge Currencies / BoE, 7. Oktober 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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