Bank of England (BoE) raises base rate on November 5, 2026, by 25 basis points to 4.00% (confirmed by BoE press release by November 5, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The BoE base rate stands at 3.75% after the last MPC meeting. For the November 5, 2026 meeting, market pricing implies ~87% probability of a 25 bp hike to 4.00% (Robinhood Prediction Markets, September 18, 2026 — calibration anchor). OIS data implies +17 bp and ~69%. A conservative anchor of 72% is used: deliberate downward deviation from the Robinhood figure to account for UK data-path risk through November (October CPI, GDP growth). The BoE is prone to data-dependent surprises; a hold cannot be excluded.
Data basis for this prediction
- Robinhood Prediction Markets: BoE November 2026 Ratsentscheid — 87,3 % für +25 bp auf 4,00 % (Stand 18.09.2026)
- OIS-Markt (Overnight Index Swaps): ~69 % Wahrscheinlichkeit für +25 bp BoE November; impliziert +17 bp (Bloomberg, 18.09.2026)
- BoE aktueller Leitzins: 3,75 % nach letzter MPC-Sitzung (bankofengland.co.uk, September 2026)
- BoE MPC-Sitzungskalender 2026: nächste Entscheidung 5. November 2026 (bankofengland.co.uk)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BoE hob den Leitzins am 5. November 2026 um 25 bp auf 4,00 % an (Quelle: Bloomberg/BoE-Pressemitteilung)
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold traded at approximately $4,130 per troy ounce on November 5, 2026 — a one-day gain of +1.68% (+$66) following the Democratic midterm sweep (Democrats won both the Senate and the House, per AP/NBC, November 5, 2026). Polymarket prices a 49% probability of gold exceeding $4,200 in November (as of November 5, 2026). The target is only 1.7% above today's closing level with 25 trading days remaining. Upside drivers: Iran de-escalation by new Democratic Congress, falling oil prices (WTI −1.13% to $87.13). Risk factors: profit-taking, rising real yields.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Cisco has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 7 of its last 8 quarters. For Q1 FY2027 (August–October 2026) the company itself guided $1.32–$1.34 per share — the market consensus of $1.32 sits at the bottom of this self-guided range, which historically signals a beat for Cisco (Q4 FY2026: $1.22 vs. consensus $1.17). AI-networking growth, Splunk integration synergies, and record Q4 FY2026 revenue ($17.25B) confirm the structural growth momentum. Q1 FY2027 revenue consensus: $18.11B (within guidance range $18.0–18.2B).