📈 Economy · Next Week

Bank of England (BoE) holds base interest rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

87%

The BoE's next MPC decision is scheduled for July 30, 2026. The current base rate is 3.75%. Market pricing implies no rate move for the rest of 2026; Oxford Economics expects a hold well into 2027. Context: UK CPI was 2.8% in May 2026, driven by Middle East energy price shocks preventing early easing. BoE analysis notes risks 'tilted towards a rise.' HomeOwners Alliance and Morningstar Global see no impulse for a change. No Polymarket odds found; market consensus for a hold is very strong.

Data basis for this prediction

BoE MPC-Sitzungsdaten 2026: nächste Entscheidung 30. Juli (bankofengland.co.uk)
HomeOwners Alliance: BoE hält bei 3,75% am 30.07.2026 (hoa.org.uk, Stand Juli 2026)
Oxford Economics via MoneyWeek: BoE-Hold durch 2026 und 2027 (moneyweek.com, Juli 2026)
Coventry Building Society: UK CPI Mai 2026 = 2,8%; Energie-Schock hält Inflation erhöht (coventrybuildingsociety.co.uk)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Bank of England hat am 30. Juli 2026 den Leitzins exakt wie vorhergesagt bei 3,75 % belassen. Das MPC stimmte 6-3 für eine Beibehaltung; die drei Gegenstimmen (Pill, Greene, Mann) plädierten sogar für eine Erhöhung auf 4,0 %, nicht für eine Senkung. Der CPI lag laut BoE bei 2,6 %, die Projektion für Q4 2026 bei ca. 3,2 %, getrieben durch anhaltend hohe Energiepreise infolge des Nahost-Konflikts – konsistent mit der Vorhersagebegründung. Quelle: Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary July 2026 (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026).

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