📈 Economy · Next Week

Bank of England (BoE) holds base interest rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

87%

The BoE's next MPC decision is scheduled for July 30, 2026. The current base rate is 3.75%. Market pricing implies no rate move for the rest of 2026; Oxford Economics expects a hold well into 2027. Context: UK CPI was 2.8% in May 2026, driven by Middle East energy price shocks preventing early easing. BoE analysis notes risks 'tilted towards a rise.' HomeOwners Alliance and Morningstar Global see no impulse for a change. No Polymarket odds found; market consensus for a hold is very strong.

Data basis for this prediction

BoE MPC-Sitzungsdaten 2026: nächste Entscheidung 30. Juli (bankofengland.co.uk)
HomeOwners Alliance: BoE hält bei 3,75% am 30.07.2026 (hoa.org.uk, Stand Juli 2026)
Oxford Economics via MoneyWeek: BoE-Hold durch 2026 und 2027 (moneyweek.com, Juli 2026)
Coventry Building Society: UK CPI Mai 2026 = 2,8%; Energie-Schock hält Inflation erhöht (coventrybuildingsociety.co.uk)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US BEA Q2 2026 Advance Estimate (30 July 2026): Real US GDP growth exceeds 7.0% annualized (SAAR)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Q2 2026 Advance Estimate on July 30, 2026. Market consensus: approximately +8.0% SAAR (Trading Economics); Q1 2026 came in at +6.4% SAAR. Drivers: tight labor market, strong consumer growth, robust corporate investment in AI and energy. The 7.0% threshold is set deliberately below consensus (buffer: 100 bps). Downside risks: weak trade balance data from tariff responses or an unexpected inventory drawdown.

62%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Jul 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

GBP/USD closes above 1.3500 on 25 July 2026 (end of Burnham government's first full week)

Andy Burnham took office as UK PM on 20 July 2026. GBP/USD was around 1.3456 on July 19–20 (range 1.3347–1.3548 the prior week). Burnham's July 22 economic announcements (household cost measures, North Sea oil fast-track, pro-EU stance) could provide modest Sterling support. Reaching 1.3500 requires only ~44 pips from the July 21 level. Downside risks: disappointing cost plans or external risk-off shocks (oil spike, Iran escalation) before Friday.

55%

Next Week · Predicted for 25. Jul 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) beats Q2 2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $7.20 per share (29 July 2026, after market close)

Meta has beaten EPS consensus for eight consecutive quarters. Current consensus is $7.18–7.32; BofA projects $7.50. Meta's Q2 revenue guidance of $58–61B was stated conservatively — a consistent Meta pattern. AI-driven ad revenue continues double-digit growth; the capex raise to $125–145B signals high management confidence. No specific Kalshi/Polymarket market exists for Meta EPS; beat probability is anchored to historical beat rate and analyst sentiment.

74%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Jul 2026