📈 Economy · Next Month

Bank of England holds its base rate (Bank Rate) at 3.75% at the MPC meeting on 17 September 2026 (confirmed by Bank of England press release)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 17. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

62%

UK CPI fell to 2.6% in June 2026 (ONS, from 2.8% in May 2026), but remains above the 2% target. Services prices (+4.1% YoY) are stubbornly elevated. OIS money markets are pricing approximately 65% probability of a pause on 17 September 2026, ~35% for a 25bp cut. BoE minutes show a divided MPC (5–4 vote in July). Stronger-than-expected Q2 2026 GDP growth and US Fed rate-hike risk limit room for BoE cuts. Exact MPC date confirmed: 17 September 2026 (BoE website).

Data basis for this prediction

bankofengland.co.uk: MPC-Sitzungskalender 2026 – September-Termin 17.09.2026 bestätigt
ONS: UK CPI Juni 2026 = 2,6% YoY, Dienstleistungen +4,1% YoY (16.07.2026)
Bloomberg OIS-Markt September 2026: ~65% Hold bei 3,75%, ~35% Cut um 25 bps (Stand 25.07.2026)
BoE September 2026 MPC Summary (bankofengland.co.uk): Termin 17.09.2026 verifiziert

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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