📈 Economy · Next Year

Argentina: Official annual inflation rate (CPI) falls below 28.0% year-on-year by December 2026 (confirmed by INDEC)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

48%

Argentina's CPI annual inflation stood at 211%+ in December 2023, fell to ~118% in December 2024, and reached 33.5% YoY in June 2026 (INDEC), with a monthly rate of 1.9% (H1 2026 accumulation: 16.8%). At a sustained 1.5–2.0% monthly rate, the annual rate would fall to ~22–28% by December 2026. President Milei's 'Plan Motosierra' features fiscal discipline (primary surplus since Q2 2024), peso stabilization, and deregulation. The IMF (WEO April 2026) forecasts ~35–50% for end-2026 — our 28% threshold requires an outperformance of the Milei program.

Data basis for this prediction

INDEC Argentina CPI Juni 2026: +1,9 % monatlich, +33,5 % YoY; H1 2026: +16,8 % (indexbox.io / INDEC, Jul 2026)
IMF WEO April 2026: Argentinien Inflation 2026 Prognose ca. 35–50 % (imf.org)
Milei Fiskalpolitik: Primärüberschuss Q1–Q2 2026 bestätigt (Ministerio de Economía, Jun 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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