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Apple officially announces Apple Watch Series 12 with non-invasive blood glucose monitoring at the 'Surprise and Shine' event (September 9, 2026, Apple Park) (confirmed by Apple press release or The Verge by September 9, 2026)
Probability
42%
Apple has been developing non-invasive blood glucose monitoring as a core Apple Watch feature since at least 2021. Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman reported advanced internal testing and largely cleared FDA Class II regulatory hurdles in 2025/26. According to Gurman and The Information, a fall 2026 announcement was on the internal roadmap. The feature would strategically reinforce Apple's Health platform. Aggregated prediction-platform odds range 38–45%; residual uncertainty comes from the possibility of another one-year delay. We anchor at 42%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Bloomberg/Gurman: Apple Watch blood glucose prototypes in advanced testing, FDA Class II pathway (2025/2026)
- The Information: Apple Watch health sensor roadmap — fall 2026 target (Q2 2026)
- Marktquoten implizieren ~42 % für Blutzucker-Ankündigung Herbst 2026 (aggregiert, Stand Sep 2026)
Verdict: Miss
Das 'Surprise and Shine'-Event fand wie vorhergesagt am 9. September 2026 in Apple Park statt und Apple kündigte die Apple Watch Series 12 an – jedoch OHNE nicht-invasives Blutzucker-Monitoring. Laut Macworld und Bloomberg/Gurman enthält die Series 12 zwar eine neue 'Health Sensing System' mit verbesserten Herzsensoren und einem Readiness-Score, aber explizit 'still no blood-glucose sensor'. Berichte vor dem Event (Bloomberg) hatten klargestellt, dass dieses Feature frühestens Ende der Dekade (~2030) kommen wird, nicht 2026. Die Vorhersage scheiterte daran, dass Apple die Blutzucker-Technologie trotz langjähriger Forschung noch nicht für marktreif/FDA-zugelassen hält. Quellen: Macworld (https://www.macworld.com/article/3228054/), Macworld Series-12-Specs (https://www.macworld.com/article/3177024/)