Apple Does Not Announce a New Apple Vision Pro Generation at the 'Surprise and Shine' Event (Sep 9, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 6. September 2026
·
Predicted for 9. September 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Apple September events have exclusively focused on iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods since 2014. A Vision Pro refresh would dilute headlines from the new iPhone family (iPhone 18 Pro, foldable iPhone). Supply-chain analysts Mark Gurman (Bloomberg) and Ming-Chi Kuo placed Vision Pro 2 no earlier than a standalone spring event or WWDC 2027. The published event lineup contains no indication of a spatial computing device.
Data basis for this prediction
- Mark Gurman/Bloomberg: Apple Vision Pro 2 frühestens 2027, kein Sep-Slot (Bloomberg, Aug 2026)
- Ming-Chi Kuo: Sep-2026-Lineup ohne Vision Pro (Substack, Aug 2026)
- Apple-Event-Muster 2019–2025: September = iPhone/Watch/AirPods exklusiv (Apple Newsroom)
Verdict: Hit
Apple kündigte beim 'Surprise and Shine'-Event am 9. September 2026 keine neue Apple Vision Pro-Generation an. Laut MacRumors, TechRadar und TechCrunch beschränkten sich die Ankündigungen auf iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, das faltbare iPhone Duo, Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4 sowie AirPods 5. Vision Pro bzw. Spatial-Computing-Hardware tauchte in keiner Event-Zusammenfassung auf. Die Vorhersage trat vollständig ein.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
The Nintendo Switch 2 launched on June 5, 2025, and by September 2026 had reportedly sold approximately 20–24 million units (industry sources noted it had already surpassed GameCube's lifetime sales of 21.74M). Successful Nintendo consoles typically sell an additional 5–8 million units in the holiday quarter (October–December). With a conservative Q4 of 5 million additional units (from a base of ~23–24 million), the 28-million mark is achievable. No Polymarket quote; Metaculus implies ~52% at this threshold.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Apple follows its established chip refresh cycle: M4 MacBook Pro announced November 2024 — M5 refresh after 23–24 months in October/November 2026 fits the historical pattern exactly (M1→M2: ~17 months; M2→M3: ~16 months; M3→M4: ~14 months). An existing open Cassandra prediction already expects the iPad Pro with new Apple Silicon by October 31 — MacBook Pro updates typically accompany iPad refreshes at the same event slot. 9to5Mac and Bloomberg reported M5 MacBook Pro leaks for H2 2026. Main risk: Apple could defer MacBook Pro to November (as in 2024), making the October 31 deadline tight.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Samsung announced Intelligent Eyewear for 'Fall 2026' at Galaxy Unpacked London (July 2026). On October 11, 2026, Samsung holds its first Asia Unpacked event in Malaysia — the most likely platform for the final announcement. Meta's Meta Connect (September 23) will showcase Ray-Ban smart glasses with a display, putting Samsung under competitive time pressure. The condition 'with a concrete market launch date' is stricter than merely naming the product. No Polymarket market; calibrated at 46% — Samsung hardware launches regularly slip, and a display-integrated product is technically more demanding than a simple smart frame.