Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) beats Q3 FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 1.88 per share (30 July 2026, after market close, confirmed by Apple press release)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. July 2026
·
Predicted for 30. July 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Apple reports Q3 FY2026 on July 30, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET. Analyst consensus: ~$1.88–1.89 adjusted EPS (YoY +20–21% vs. $1.57 in Q3 FY2025) on revenue ~$108.8–110bn (+14–17% YoY). Gross margin expectation: 47.5–48.5%. Apple has beaten its EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters (historical beat rate >85%). Drivers: iPhone 17 cycle, Services segment at ~$100bn annualized, Apple Intelligence. No Polymarket market found; analogy to large-cap tech implies ~82%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Apple setzt Q3-FY2026-Ergebnisveröffentlichung auf 30. Juli 2026 (9to5mac.com, 2. Juli 2026)
- Apple Q3-2026-Earnings-Preview: EPS-Konsens 1,88–1,89 USD, YoY +20–21 % (IG International/Seeking Alpha, Juli 2026)
- Finance Calendar: AAPL Earnings Preview Q3 FY2026 (financecalendar.com, Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Apple hat die Vorhersage klar erfüllt. Am 30. Juli 2026 meldete Apple für Q3 FY2026 ein bereinigtes Non-GAAP-EPS von 1,91 USD und übertraf damit den Analysten-Konsens von ~1,88–1,89 USD. Das GAAP-EPS (verwässert) lag sogar bei 2,02 USD (+29 % YoY). Der Umsatz betrug 109,4 Mrd. USD (+16 % YoY), ebenfalls über der Erwartung von ~108,65–108,79 Mrd. USD. Quellen: Apple Newsroom (apple.com/newsroom/2026/07/apple-reports-third-quarter-results/), MacRumors, 9to5Mac, CNBC Live Updates vom 30.07.2026.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.