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📈 Economy · Next Week

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) beats Q3 FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 1.88 per share (30 July 2026, after market close, confirmed by Apple press release)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
82%

Apple reports Q3 FY2026 on July 30, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET. Analyst consensus: ~$1.88–1.89 adjusted EPS (YoY +20–21% vs. $1.57 in Q3 FY2025) on revenue ~$108.8–110bn (+14–17% YoY). Gross margin expectation: 47.5–48.5%. Apple has beaten its EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters (historical beat rate >85%). Drivers: iPhone 17 cycle, Services segment at ~$100bn annualized, Apple Intelligence. No Polymarket market found; analogy to large-cap tech implies ~82%.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Apple setzt Q3-FY2026-Ergebnisveröffentlichung auf 30. Juli 2026 (9to5mac.com, 2. Juli 2026)
  • Apple Q3-2026-Earnings-Preview: EPS-Konsens 1,88–1,89 USD, YoY +20–21 % (IG International/Seeking Alpha, Juli 2026)
  • Finance Calendar: AAPL Earnings Preview Q3 FY2026 (financecalendar.com, Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
Apple hat die Vorhersage klar erfüllt. Am 30. Juli 2026 meldete Apple für Q3 FY2026 ein bereinigtes Non-GAAP-EPS von 1,91 USD und übertraf damit den Analysten-Konsens von ~1,88–1,89 USD. Das GAAP-EPS (verwässert) lag sogar bei 2,02 USD (+29 % YoY). Der Umsatz betrug 109,4 Mrd. USD (+16 % YoY), ebenfalls über der Erwartung von ~108,65–108,79 Mrd. USD. Quellen: Apple Newsroom (apple.com/newsroom/2026/07/apple-reports-third-quarter-results/), MacRumors, 9to5Mac, CNBC Live Updates vom 30.07.2026.
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S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,450 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.

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US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

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