Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) beats the adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $1.89 per share at its Q3 FY2026 earnings release (July 30, 2026, after market close)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Apple reports Q3 FY2026 on July 30, 2026 after market close (analyst call 5:00 PM ET). Consensus Non-GAAP EPS is approximately $1.89, implying ~21% YoY growth vs Q3 FY2025. Apple has beaten EPS consensus in more than 75% of the last 20 quarters. Drivers: strong Services segment with record margins (~75%), Apple Intelligence driving iPhone upgrade cycles and in-app purchases. AAPL closed at $326.59 on July 20, 2026 (+~20% YTD). Risks: USD strength (international revenue ~60%) and potential US-China trade tensions. No specific Polymarket market; historical beat rate serves as primary calibration anchor.
Data basis for this prediction
- Apple Q3 FY2026 Ergebnistermin: 30. Juli 2026, nach Börsenschluss (TipRanks / Nasdaq Earnings Calendar, 21. Juli 2026)
- Non-GAAP EPS Konsens: ca. 1,89 USD – impliziert ~21 % YoY-Wachstum (TipRanks, financecalendar.com, 21. Juli 2026)
- Apple historische EPS-Beat-Rate: >75 % der letzten 20 Quartale (FactSet / Yahoo Finance)
- AAPL Aktienkurs: 326,59 USD (Schluss 20. Juli 2026, Investing.com)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Apple berichtete am 30. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss Q3 FY2026-Ergebnisse, die den EPS-Konsens klar übertrafen. Der bereinigte Non-GAAP-EPS lag bei 1,91 USD und übertraf damit den LSEG-Konsens von 1,89 USD. Der ausgewiesene GAAP-Diluted-EPS betrug 2,02 USD (enthält +0,11 USD Sondereffekt aus Zollrückerstattungen). Umsatz: 109,4 Mrd. USD (+16 % YoY), getrieben durch +22 % iPhone-Wachstum und Rekordumsätze in Mac und Services. Quellen: MacRumors (https://www.macrumors.com/2026/07/30/apple-3q-2026-earnings/), 9to5Mac (https://9to5mac.com/2026/07/30/apple-reports-q3-2026-earnings-109-4-billion-in-revenue-up-16/), Investing.com Earnings Call Transcript.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.