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📈 Economy · Next Month

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) beats Q3-FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$1.88 per share (July 30, 2026, after market close)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern
Probability
75%

Apple has confirmed July 30, 2026 as its earnings date. Non-GAAP consensus EPS: $1.88–1.89 (~+20% YoY); revenue forecast: $107–110B (+14–17% YoY). Apple beats consensus EPS in over 80% of quarters. Drivers: iPhone 17 super-cycle (Apple Intelligence, new AI Siri), Services growth ~+15% YoY, and buybacks exceeding $25B/quarter. No Polymarket odds.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Apple Q3 FY2026 Earnings Date: 30. Juli 2026 (9to5Mac, 02.07.2026)
  • EPS-Konsens 1,88–1,89 USD; Revenue 107–110 Mrd. USD (Analyst-Aggregat, Stand 19.07.2026)
  • Apple historische Beat-Rate > 80 % (FactSet/Bloomberg, mehrere Quartale)
  • Apple Services-Wachstum ~+15 % YoY erwartet (Analyst-Konsens, Stand 19.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
Apple meldete am 30. Juli 2026 tatsächlich einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 1,91 USD je Aktie und übertraf damit den Konsens von ca. 1,88–1,89 USD (LSEG/Zacks). Der Umsatz lag bei 109,4 Mrd. USD (+16 % YoY), ebenfalls über der Konsenserwartung (~108,65 Mrd. USD). Die Vorhersage ist damit klar eingetreten. Quellen: 9to5Mac (https://9to5mac.com/2026/07/30/apple-reports-q3-2026-earnings-109-4-billion-in-revenue-up-16/), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-aapl-q3-earnings-revenues-220002623.html), MacRumors (https://www.macrumors.com/2026/07/30/apple-3q-2026-earnings/).
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DAX 40 (XETRA) closes above 26,000 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by XETRA closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

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US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

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Bitcoin (BTC/USD spot) closes above $100,000 per unit on December 31, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or CoinGecko by December 31, 2026)

Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.

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