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📈 Economy · Next Month

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) beats Q3-FY2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$1.88 per share (July 30, 2026, after market close)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern
Probability
75%

Apple has confirmed July 30, 2026 as its earnings date. Non-GAAP consensus EPS: $1.88–1.89 (~+20% YoY); revenue forecast: $107–110B (+14–17% YoY). Apple beats consensus EPS in over 80% of quarters. Drivers: iPhone 17 super-cycle (Apple Intelligence, new AI Siri), Services growth ~+15% YoY, and buybacks exceeding $25B/quarter. No Polymarket odds.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Apple Q3 FY2026 Earnings Date: 30. Juli 2026 (9to5Mac, 02.07.2026)
  • EPS-Konsens 1,88–1,89 USD; Revenue 107–110 Mrd. USD (Analyst-Aggregat, Stand 19.07.2026)
  • Apple historische Beat-Rate > 80 % (FactSet/Bloomberg, mehrere Quartale)
  • Apple Services-Wachstum ~+15 % YoY erwartet (Analyst-Konsens, Stand 19.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
Apple meldete am 30. Juli 2026 tatsächlich einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 1,91 USD je Aktie und übertraf damit den Konsens von ca. 1,88–1,89 USD (LSEG/Zacks). Der Umsatz lag bei 109,4 Mrd. USD (+16 % YoY), ebenfalls über der Konsenserwartung (~108,65 Mrd. USD). Die Vorhersage ist damit klar eingetreten. Quellen: 9to5Mac (https://9to5mac.com/2026/07/30/apple-reports-q3-2026-earnings-109-4-billion-in-revenue-up-16/), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-aapl-q3-earnings-revenues-220002623.html), MacRumors (https://www.macrumors.com/2026/07/30/apple-3q-2026-earnings/).
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S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

62%
Next Week · Predicted for 13. Nov 2026
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US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%
Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026
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Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%
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