Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reports Q4 FY2026 (July–September 2026, c. 29 October 2026) total revenue exceeding USD 108 billion
Partial Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. September 2026
·
Predicted for 29. October 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Apple reported Q4 FY2025 (July–September 2025) revenue of $102.5bn (+8% YoY, Apple 8-K, 30 Oct 2025). Services grew +15% to $28.8bn and will continue to expand structurally in FY2026. For Q4 FY2026, the $108bn threshold requires ~5.4% growth vs Q4 FY2025 – more moderate than the 8% jump the prior year. Drivers: (1) iPhone 18 launch September 2026 (Apple Intelligence features, improved AI camera) covers the full pre-order cycle before quarter-end; (2) Services (App Store, iCloud+, Apple TV+, Advertising) grows structurally 10–15% p.a.; (3) Mac and iPad benefit from M5 chip refresh. Bloomberg consensus for Q4 FY2026 is approximately $108–113bn. No Polymarket/Kalshi market prices available for AAPL quarterly revenue.
Data basis for this prediction
- Apple Inc. Form 8-K / Q4 FY2025 Earnings (30.10.2025, SEC): Gesamtumsatz 102,50 Mrd. USD (+8 % YoY)
- Apple Q4 FY2025 (9to5Mac, 30.10.2025): Services 28,8 Mrd. USD (+15 %), iPhone 49,0 Mrd. USD (+6 %)
- Bloomberg-Konsens Apple Q4 FY2026 (Abruf 16.09.2026): ca. 108–113 Mrd. USD
- Apple FY2025 Gesamtjahresumsatz: 416 Mrd. USD (Apple IR, 30.10.2025)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Partial Hit
Die Q4-FY2026-Ergebnisse (Juli–September 2026) sind noch nicht öffentlich verfügbar. Apple hat den Berichtstermin auf den 2. November 2026 festgesetzt (Quelle: 9to5Mac, 06.10.2026; MarketBeat), nicht auf den in der Vorhersage angenommenen ca. 29. Oktober 2026. Das Reporting-Datum liegt also 4 Tage später als erwartet. Alle verfügbaren Vorausindikatoren deuten jedoch auf ein klares 'Hit' hin: Apples eigene Guidance lautet auf 9–11 % Umsatzwachstum YoY (Basis Q4 FY2025: 102,47 Mrd. USD → impliziert 111,7–113,8 Mrd. USD), der Analysten-Konsens liegt bei ca. 113,4 Mrd. USD (MarketBeat/Seeking Alpha) – beides weit über der 108-Mrd.-Schwelle. Da das Ergebnis zum Bewertungszeitpunkt (01.11.2026) noch aussteht, ist keine abschließende Bewertung möglich; alle Indikatoren sprechen jedoch für 'hit'.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
ARM Holdings reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) on November 4 after market close. EPS consensus: $0.47; revenue consensus ~$1.38B (Theta Research, Oct 29). ARM is the dominant CPU IP licensor for AI servers (Neoverse), smartphones (Apple A-series, Qualcomm), and edge devices — all three segments scaling strongly in 2026. ARM has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, driven by AI infrastructure capex. No direct Polymarket contract; analogue: S&P 500 Q3 2026 beat rate ~71%. Key risks: export control escalation (UK/US vs. China), hyperscaler capex delays, or HBM4 demand plateau.