Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) beats the Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $1.82 per share on July 30, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Amazon has beaten the adjusted EPS consensus in eight or more consecutive quarters. For Q2 2026, consensus expects $1.82 per share (+8.3% vs. $1.68 in Q2 2025) on revenue of $196.02B. AWS remains the key driver thanks to generative AI workloads. Management guidance tends to be conservative, supporting beats. Historical beat rate >80%; own calibration: 76%.
Data basis for this prediction
- MarketBeat (Juli 2026): Q2-EPS-Konsens $1,82 (+8,3% YoY); Umsatz-Konsens $196,02 Mrd.
- ValueSense (aktuell): "Amazon Q2 Earnings Meet: Revenue, AWS Beat; 2026 Capex Guide Jumps"
- Amazon Earnings History: 8+ aufeinanderfolgende Quartals-EPS-Beats (MarketBeat)
- AWS Q2 2026: KI-Workload-Wachstum als stärkstes Segment-Momentum
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Amazon meldete am 30. Juli 2026 für Q2 2026 einen bereinigten EPS von ca. 1,88 USD – deutlich über dem Konsens von 1,82 USD (bzw. 1,83 USD nach Zacks). Der ausgewiesene GAAP-EPS von 5,75 USD war durch einen einmaligen Buchgewinn von ~53,4 Mrd. USD aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung stark aufgebläht, aber auch der bereinigte Wert schlug die Erwartungen klar. Der Umsatz lag bei 200,6 Mrd. USD (+20 % YoY) vs. erwartet ~196,5 Mrd. USD. AWS wuchs 36,7 % YoY – stärkstes Wachstum seit 18 Quartalen. Die Aktie stieg ~9 % nachbörslich. Quellen: Alphastreet (https://news.alphastreet.com/amazon-amzn-q2-2026-earnings-beat-estimates-sales-rise-20/), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/amazon-amzn-surpasses-q2-earnings-211501363.html), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/amazon-amzn-q2-earnings-report-2026.html).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.