📈 Economy · Next Week

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) beats Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$1.82 per share (reporting July 30, 2026, after market close, confirmed by Amazon press release)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. July 2026 · Predicted for 30. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

65%

Amazon reports after market close July 30, 2026. Non-GAAP EPS consensus ~$1.82 (FinanceCalendar/Bloomberg July 2026). Drivers: AWS growing ~17–20% YoY on enterprise AI migrations; Amazon Ads expanding strongly. Amazon beat in 7 of last 8 quarters. Headwind: Motley Fool flags 'palpable sense of caution' for Big Tech (July 23, 2026) on heavy AI capex. No direct Polymarket quote; historical beat pattern supports ~65%.

Data basis for this prediction

FinanceCalendar: AMZN earnings July 30, 2026 after close
Bloomberg: Amazon Non-GAAP EPS consensus $1.82, Juli 2026
Motley Fool: Big Tech earnings caution, July 23, 2026
Yahoo Finance: AWS growth trajectory Q2 2026

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Amazon berichtete am 30. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss einen bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS von 1,97 USD, deutlich über dem Konsens von ca. 1,82 USD. Der GAAP-EPS lag bei 5,75 USD, massiv aufgebläht durch einen einmaligen nicht-operativen Vorsteuergewinn von 53,4 Mrd. USD aus Anthropic-Investitionen. Die operativen Treiber der Vorhersage trafen zu: AWS wuchs 36,7 % YoY (stärker als die erwarteten 17–20 %), und der Gesamtumsatz übertraf mit 200,6 Mrd. USD die Schätzung von 196,85 Mrd. USD. Quellen: ir.aboutamazon.com (offizielle Pressemitteilung), CNBC Q2 2026 Earnings Report, MarketBeat, Shacknews.

Related Predictions

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S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Nov 2026

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US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026

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Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026