Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) beats Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approx. $1.82 per share (30 July 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. July 2026
·
Predicted for 30. July 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Amazon reports Q2 2026 results (April–June 2026) on 30 July 2026. Adjusted EPS consensus stands at approx. $1.82. Key drivers: AWS growing at ~19% YoY (generative AI infrastructure), advertising revenues in double digits, improved logistics profitability through same-day delivery expansion. Amazon's Q2 operating income guidance was $20–24 billion. Historical EPS beat rate for Amazon is approx. 80% (8 of 10 quarters). The Hormuz crisis slightly raises transport costs but is offset by AWS and advertising strength. No direct Polymarket market; historical rate implies 68%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Amazon Q2-2026 Berichtsdatum: 30. Juli 2026; EPS-Konsens 1,82 USD (FinanceCalendar, 16.07.2026)
- Amazon Q1-2026 EPS: 1,59 USD (Beat vs. Konsens 1,37 USD; Amazon IR, April 2026)
- AWS Q1-2026 Wachstum: 19 % YoY (Amazon Earnings Call, April 2026)
- Amazon Q2 operative Gewinn-Guidance: 20–24 Mrd. USD (Amazon IR, April 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Amazon berichtete am 30. Juli 2026 Q2-2026-Ergebnisse und übertraf den bereinigten EPS-Konsens von ~1,82 USD deutlich: Der bereinigte EPS lag bei ~1,97 USD (+ca. 8 % über dem Konsens). Der GAAP-EPS von 5,75 USD war durch einen einmaligen nicht-operativen Buchgewinn von 53,4 Mrd. USD aus der Anthropic-Beteiligung (Mark-to-Market) erheblich aufgebläht und ist daher nicht repräsentativ für das operative Ergebnis. Auf operativer Basis schlug Amazon dennoch klar: AWS wuchs 36,7 % YoY (vs. erwarteten ~19 %), Umsatz 200,6 Mrd. USD (vs. 196,85 Mrd. erwartet), Werbeumsatz +26 % YoY. Quellen: Shacknews (https://www.shacknews.com/article/150202/amazon-amzn-q2-2026-earnings-results), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/amazon-amzn-surpasses-q2-earnings-211501363.html), TradingKey (https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262121088-amazon-amzn-q2-2026-200-6b-revenue-5-75-eps-beat-aws-37-growth-220-capex-3-trillion-market-cap-tradingkey).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.