Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) beats the adjusted EPS consensus of approx. USD 1.82 per share in its Q2 2026 results (July 30, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Amazon has beaten EPS consensus in 10+ consecutive quarters. Three growth drivers remain intact: AWS (cloud AI, ~25% YoY growth expected), Advertising Services (~18% YoY), and rising operating margins through logistics efficiency. The EPS consensus for Q2 2026 is approx. $1.82 (FactSet, as of July 14, 2026). Strong JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs beats this week signal robust enterprise cloud/IT spending — a direct proxy for AWS demand. Prediction-market-equivalent implied probability >70% for a beat. No duplicate with existing Cassandra predictions.
Data basis for this prediction
- Amazon Q2 2026 EPS-Konsens: ca. 1,82 USD (FactSet/Wall Street Horizon, Stand 14.07.2026)
- Amazon Q2 2026 Earnings-Termin: 30. Juli 2026 nach Börsenschluss (financecalendar.com)
- JPMorgan Q2 2026 EPS-Beat: 6,14 USD vs. Konsens 5,52 USD (+11 %, 14.07.2026)
- Goldman Sachs Q2 2026 EPS-Beat: 20,98 USD vs. Konsens 13,95 USD (+50 %, 14.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Amazon übertraf am 30. Juli 2026 den EPS-Konsens deutlich. Der bereinigte EPS (ohne den einmaligen Anthropic-Bewertungsgewinn von 53,4 Mrd. USD) lag bei ca. 1,97 USD gegenüber dem Konsens von ~1,8563 USD (+6,1 % Überraschung). Der Headline-EPS betrug 5,75 USD, stark aufgebläht durch den nicht-operativen Anthropic-Investitionsgewinn. Die operativen Treiber der Vorhersage trafen ein: AWS-Umsatz +36,7 % YoY auf 42,2 Mrd. USD (18-Quartals-Hoch), operatives Ergebnis +43 % auf 27,5 Mrd. USD. Quellen: Alphastreet (https://news.alphastreet.com/amazon-amzn-q2-2026-earnings-beat-estimates-sales-rise-20/), TradingKey (https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262121088-amazon-amzn-q2-2026-200-6b-revenue-5-75-eps-beat-aws-37-growth-220-capex-3-trillion-market-cap-tradingkey), Money365 (https://www.money365.market/articles/amazon-q2-2026-earnings-analysis).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.