Allan MacDonald (University of Texas at Austin) wins Nobel Prize in Physics 2026 for theoretical foundations of magic-angle superconductivity in twisted bilayer graphene (announced October 6, 2026, confirmed via Nobel.org by October 6, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. October 2026
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Predicted for 6. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Kalshi rates Allan MacDonald (UT Austin) at 21% as top candidate, followed by Alexei Kitaev (Caltech, 17%) and Charles Kane (University of Pennsylvania, 15%). All three research topological condensed matter — a field without a Physics Nobel since 2016 (Thouless/Haldane/Kosterlitz). MacDonald's work on magic-angle superconductivity in graphene bilayers (2018, with Pablo Jarillo-Herrero, MIT) ranks among the most-cited physics discoveries of the past decade and launched the global twistronics research wave. Single-name probability for MacDonald: 20%; total probability for the topological condensed matter field: ~35%. Clarivate Citation Laureates 2026 lists condensed matter as a strong predictor candidate.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: 21 % für Allan MacDonald, Nobelpreis Physik 2026 (Stand 3.10.2026)
- Kalshi: Alexei Kitaev 17 %, Charles Kane 15 % als nächste Kandidaten (Stand 3.10.2026)
- Bohring Substack: Who Will Win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics? (September 2026)
- Clarivate Citation Laureates 2026: Condensed Matter Physics als Nobelpreiskandidat
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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