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💻 Technology · Next Week

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) beats Q2-FY2026 earnings (August 4, 2026, after market close) adjusted non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. USD 1.60 per share

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 4. August 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
76%

AMD guided Q2-FY2026 revenue at $11.2bn (±$300M) — up +46% y/y and +9% QoQ vs. Q1. The Data Center segment (MI300/MI350 AI accelerators, EPYC server CPUs) already grew +57% y/y to $5.8bn in Q1. AMD has beaten adjusted EPS estimates in 8 consecutive quarters (Q1-FY2026: non-GAAP EPS $1.57 vs. consensus $1.52). CEO Lisa Su cited 'accelerating demand for AI infrastructure.' No direct Polymarket data for AMD Q2; own assessment based on revenue guidance and beat history.

Data basis for this prediction
  • AMD Q2-FY2026 Revenue Guidance: 11,2 Mrd. USD ±300 Mio. (AMD IR, Pressemitteilung 7. Juli 2026)
  • AMD Q1-FY2026: Non-GAAP EPS 1,57 USD vs. Konsens 1,52 USD – Beat +3,3 % (AMD April 2026)
  • AMD Data Center Q1-FY2026: 5,8 Mrd. USD (+57 % y/y) (AMD Pressemitteilung April 2026)
  • AMD EPS-Beat-Rate: 8/8 letzte Quartale (Bloomberg/FactSet, Stand 26. Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit
AMD meldete am 4. August 2026 nach Börsenschluss einen bereinigten Non-GAAP-EPS von 1,66 USD je Aktie und übertraf damit den Konsens von ca. 1,60–1,62 USD deutlich. Der Quartalsumsatz erreichte mit 11,5 Mrd. USD ebenfalls einen Rekordwert (+50 % y/y, über der Guidance-Mitte von 11,2 Mrd. USD). Das Data-Center-Segment verdoppelte sich auf 6,7 Mrd. USD (+107 % y/y). Die Beat-Historie setzte sich damit fort. Quellen: finance.yahoo.com ('AMD Q2 2026 earnings: record revenue'), sci-tech-today.com ('Revenue Beats at $11.5 Billion'), cnbc.com ('AMD earnings report Q2 2026').
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Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closes above $185.00 per share on at least one trading day in November 2026 — confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by December 1, 2026

PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.

42%
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Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) closes below $100.00 per share on November 10, 2026 (confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by November 11, 2026)

CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.

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ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARM) beats Q2-FY2027 EPS consensus of $0.47 per share — earnings report November 4, 2026 after market close (confirmed by ARM Holdings Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 5, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

ARM Holdings reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) on November 4 after market close. EPS consensus: $0.47; revenue consensus ~$1.38B (Theta Research, Oct 29). ARM is the dominant CPU IP licensor for AI servers (Neoverse), smartphones (Apple A-series, Qualcomm), and edge devices — all three segments scaling strongly in 2026. ARM has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, driven by AI infrastructure capex. No direct Polymarket contract; analogue: S&P 500 Q3 2026 beat rate ~71%. Key risks: export control escalation (UK/US vs. China), hyperscaler capex delays, or HBM4 demand plateau.

68%
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