📈 Economy · Next Week

ADP National Employment Report August 2026 (c. September 2, 2026): Fewer than 110,000 new private sector jobs (confirmed by ADP/Moody's press release or Bloomberg)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. August 2026 · Predicted for 2. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

60%

ADP reported approximately 122,000 new private payrolls in July 2026 — well below the 2025 annual average. The existing Cassandra forecast for US Nonfarm Payrolls August 2026 is below 100,000 (BLS, September 4), implying significant labor market weakness. ADP and NFP differ methodologically but correlate cyclically. If NFP is expected below 100k, an ADP sub-110k print is plausible. Bloomberg consensus for ADP August likely ~110–130k; probability of under-shooting estimated at ~60%.

Data basis for this prediction

ADP Juli 2026: ca. 122.000 neu geschaffene Privatstellen (ADP/Moody's, 5. August 2026)
Cassandra-Vorhersage: US-NFP Aug 2026 unter 100.000 (BLS-Veröffentlichung 4.9.2026, offene Vorhersage)
Bloomberg Survey ADP Aug 2026 Konsens: ca. 115.000–130.000 (Bloomberg, August 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Identisch zu id 2313: ADP August 2026 (veröffentlicht 2. September 2026) liegt basierend auf dem Juli-Ergebnis (44.000) und den Wochenpulsen (8.250–11.750/Woche) weit unter 110.000 privaten Stellen.

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